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Political earthquake rattles outlook

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Dermot O'Leary

Chief Economist

Dermot O'Leary is one of the most influential economists working in Ireland today. His original insights on Ireland and the global economy make him an indispensable asset to both private and corporate clients.

Dermot O'Leary is one of the most influential economists working in Ireland today. His original insights on Ireland and the global economy make him an indispensable asset to both private and corporate clients.

10 February 2020

The full results of the general election are still being calculated, but it is now clear that two of the three biggest parties - Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and Fine Gael - will need to come together to form a government.

Sinn Féin surprisingly received the highest number of first preferences, so they can argue that they have a mandate to form a government. It will probably take weeks to resolve, but the most likely outcomes are: FF-FG, FF-SF, or a new election. 

Sinn Féin in government would represent a significant move to the left, with public spending prioritised over tax decreases. A FF-SF coalition would most likely lead to a large increase in public sector housing output and higher spending on healthcare. Business policy, however, would probably see fewer changes, as all three parties broadly agree on corporate tax and the importance of inward investment. 

 

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