Following a volatile week last week culminating in a sell off of all sectors on Friday, Chief Investment Officer Bernard Swords explains why he regards the current weakness as a phase of consolidation and that opportunities are broadening. He reiterates his view that the longer-term case is intact as policy support continues and earnings seasons is going well.
- Short term jitters carried onto month end. Neither the bond market nor the US dollar are seeing major flows. We would regard current weakness as a phase of consolidation. We expected short term bumps but the longer-term case is intact.
- The policy support continues to improve. Another fiscal package is on the way in the US and may end up at the higher end of expectations. This should help us get through what is likely to be a more difficult start to the year due to the wider and deeper lock downs. The Fed also re-iterated its easy stance which is a powerful combination for risk assets.
- The earnings season is going extremely well. A good season was expected but there are some features which are worth recapping on. Going into this reporting season forecasts were increased. This is very unusual, normally forecasts are reduced, but this time the bar has been raised and this is being beaten. Eight out of eleven sectors are now seeing YoY earnings increases. For the market as a whole, sales are now up YoY.
