Interest rate expectations facing a reversal

08 November 2021

In this week’s market Pulse, Chief Investment Officer Bernard Swords talked about how reticent central banks are to increase interest rates as well as the continuation of a strong Q3 earnings season, all leading to a positive outlook for markets as we head towards year end. 

  • Interest rate expectations faced a reversal last week, with two trigger points being the Bank of England meeting and the Fed’s Powell commentary on how transitory the inflation forces are. This pushes the expected interest rate increases in the US out towards Q4, which gave a spur to all asset markets.
  • Q3 earning season continued again last week, with US earnings growth coming in at 40% year on year, and in the Euro area, we are getting 50% year on year earnings growth. They are not as strong as they have been in previous quarters, which is coming from very strong sales growth. Companies are facing supply chain issues and cost pressures, however demand is very strong that they are able to cope with pressures and produce results.
  • This all leads to a positive outlook for the end of the year, which is motivated by the US economic performance, calm fixed income markets and an earnings story, with a potential for upgrades. The market may face disruption from China and closer to home via ongoing UK-EU negotiations.
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