Ireland’s Opportunity: The Engine MRO “Super Cycle”
As the aviation industry races toward its 2050 net-zero emissions target, questions around the scalability of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), technological readiness, and market-based solutions are intensifying. In this report, Dudley Shanley, Head of Aviation and Travel Research, examines the sector’s decarbonisation strategy, highlighting the challenges ahead. The report also explores a significant opportunity for Ireland to lead in engine maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO), positioning itself as a key player in the future of sustainable aviation.
Questions remain about SAF’s scalability & technological developments…
The commercial aviation industry has committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, thus aligning itself with the Paris Agreement’s climate goals. This ambitious target is expected to be met through a combination of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), next-generation engine technologies, operational efficiencies, and market-based measures such as carbon offsets and carbon capture. SAF is expected to do most of the heavy lifting, with IATA originally expecting SAF to contribute up to 65% of the carbon emissions reduction. However, SAF scalability remains a major challenge. While new technologies like hydrogen powered aircraft, electric aircraft and blended wing body aircraft may offer long-term promise, their commercial viability is still decades away. In the short to medium term, the emerging supply of SAF, operational improvements, improvements in engine efficiency and carbon offsets will be critical to reducing carbon emissions.
…suggesting the net-zero by 2050 target is too big a stretch
Despite the strong commitments and some progress to date, in the last few months several stakeholders in the commercial aviation sector have expressed growing doubts about the sector’s ability to achieve the net-zero by 2050 target. Based on our analysis we believe that the commercial aviation sector is unlikely to meet its net-zero target by 2050 without a major breakthrough in carbon capture technology or a very significant increase in carbon offsets which raises questions about the sector’s decarbonisation strategy. Goodbody’s emissions model forecasts that, even with aggressive SAF adoption, next generation engine efficiency and gains from operational improvements, emissions (pre-carbon capture and carbon offsets) will decline to 67% of 2024 levels by 2050. To close the remaining gap market-based measures would need to deliver reductions on par with those of SAF. This is an outcome considered unlikely under the current trajectories. However, in the context of a global fleet that will have more than doubled by 2050 the emissions reduction is still very substantial. On that basis our analysis raises a key question: does narrowly missing net-zero in 2050 matter if the overall climate impact is transformative?
However, there is a significant opportunity for Ireland Inc.
With the global commercial fleet expected to double by 2050, the engine maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market is entering a structural “super cycle.” Ireland, already a global leader in aircraft leasing, is well-positioned to expand into high-value engine MRO. By leveraging its existing aviation ecosystem, investing in infrastructure and skills, investing in education and attracting OEM partnerships, Ireland could establish itself as the EU’s engine MRO hub. Capturing even a small share of this growing market could generate billions in revenue and thousands of high-skilled jobs, anchoring a new pillar of the Irish aviation economy.