Chart of the week: a relief

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Back in September, we highlighted concerns about the US labour market as the three-month moving average of job growth was close to zero, signalling a potential slowdown. This raised fears of a knock-on effect for the broader economy and financial markets.

Fast forward to last week, and the picture looks brighter. With the government reopened and data flowing again, the latest non-farm payrolls report delivered a pleasant surprise: 119,000 jobs added in a single month, well ahead of expectations. More importantly, as you can see in the chart below, this was enough to reverse the downward trend in the three-month moving average. While it’s just one data point and subject to revision, it’s an encouraging sign that any slowdown may be easing, and we could even see momentum pick up again.

A healthier labour market supports consumer spending and confidence, which in turn underpins the US economy and risk assets. While we remain mindful of potential headwinds from tariffs, this update gives us greater comfort about the near-term outlook. For investors, it’s a reminder that resilience remains a defining feature of the US economy.