Chart of the week: the trajectory of Fed rate cut expectations

Written by Moyah Flanagan, Wealth Management

20 March 2024

Data-driven insights and analysis from our investment team every week.

Given recent CPI and PPI data, it appears that inflation is proving to be persistent and the age old saying that ‘the last mile is always the hardest’ is ringing true. The chart below graphs the path of rate cut expectations priced by markets. In other words, it illustrates how much markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy rate to fall by the end of this year. Focusing on summer last year, markets expected that the policy rate would fall by approximately 1.7% by the end of 2024. If a rate cut is 0.25%, this would equate to six to seven cuts by end 2024. Fast forward to February 2024, these rate cut expectations have peeled back to less than 1% of cuts, or approximately three to four cuts of 0.25%.

The reversal of rate cut expectations brings market pricing much more in line with central bank dot plot projections. The tempering of expectations has also fed through to the timing of rate cuts with the projected start date of interest rate decreases pushed out from March of this year to June. A key release to watch this week will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement that will contain updated economic projections – potentially giving greater insight into when rate cuts will start, how fast those rate cuts will come, or if the Fed will simply press pause on the prospects of rate cuts until further into 2024.

This is a marketing communication.

Related Articles
Your Investments
Chart of the week: the very healthy state of US consumers’ net wealth

Bernard Swords

In our latest instalment of our blog series, Chart of the week, Bernard Swords, Chief Investment Officer, examines the progress of net wealth of US consumers.

Read More
Your Investments
Chart of the week: Observing the market’s appetite for weight-loss stocks

Brian Flavin

In our latest instalment of our blog series, Chart of the week, Brian Flavin Senior Equity Research Analyst, examines the recent performance of weight-loss stocks.

Read More
Your Investments
Chart of the week: Are the ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks in bubble territory?

Sebastian Orsi, CFA

In our latest instalment of our blog series, Chart of the week, Sebastian Orsi, Senior Research Analyst, examines the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks.

Read More
Contact Us
Warning: Nothing presented on this website constitutes investment advice as it does not take into account the investment objectives, knowledge and experience or financial situation of any person. You should not act on it in any way and are advised to obtain professional advice suitable to your own individual circumstances. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. You may lose some or all of the money you invest. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance; neither should simulated performance. The value of securities may be subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities.